Integrating socio-economic and land-use models to support urban and regional planning

In the past decades several attempts have been made to integrate socio-economic models with land use change (LUC) models. In most cases, however, there is a uni-directional relation from the socio-economic model(s) to the LUC model by providing land use demands based on demographic and economic developments. In this paper we present a model that allows for a more dynamic integration between both processes by including a bi-directional interaction that enables a feedback from the land use model to the economic model in addition to the above-mentioned traditional link. To facilitate its use in a planning and policy-making context the integrated model is provided in the form of an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System (ISDSS) that allows policy analysts to assess the impact of various policy options (related to spatial planning, infrastructure development and economic incentives) on a set of social, economic and environmental indicators and to test the robustness of those policy alternatives under various external conditions (mainly demographic and macro-economic developments). This paper will present an application of the ISDSS to the Wellington region in New Zealand. We will describe the individual models incorporated in the ISDSS, the integration between the individual models and the impact of the feedback mechanisms. The latter will be demonstrated through the results of the Wellington application. One of the main findings of the approach is that the feedbacks incorporated in the system show that socioeconomic development is an important driver for land use change, but that limited (land) resources also have an impact on economic development and restrict the economic growth that most (demand-driven) economic models would project.